Andrey Litvinov

Gold’s performance in 2025 has been extraordinary by historical standards. Prices have risen by more than 60% in dollar terms, the strongest annual gain in almost half a century, and in inflation-adjusted terms gold has never been more expensive. History offers a cautionary parallel: after peaking in late 1979, gold lost nearly two-thirds of its value over the following five years. That comparison inevitably raises the question of whether the current rally is another bubble—or whether gold is responding to a fundamentally different global environment.

Forecasts from UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank now converge around a dramatic but increasingly plausible scenario: by 2026, gold will trade between $4,450 and $4,900 per ounce, with realistic pathways toward even higher levels if geopolitical, monetary, or fiscal pressures intensify. What distinguishes this new outlook from previous bullish cycles is the recognition that gold’s rise is not a short-term reaction to volatility but a long-term recalibration of how investors and governments distribute risk in a more fragmented world.